13. Geopolitical headwinds reshape M&A deal strategy — 73% of business leaders report trade and supply-chain disruption impact

EY-Parthenon's June 2026 M&A outlook forecasts 8 percent growth in US deal volume above $100 million, with corporate M&A projected up 11 percent driven by AI-readiness and resilience transactions. Against this, 73 percent of leaders surveyed report that geopolitical and economic crosscurrents — including trade policy, supply-chain disruption, tariffs, and interest rates — have materially affected their growth strategies. Private equity deal volume is expected to remain flat, with Q1 2026 already down 11 percent year-on-year. For law firms and in-house teams, the implication is that geopolitical risk assessment is now embedded in deal structuring from the first stages: CFIUS, EU FDI screening, tariff exposure, sanctions counterparty risk, and China regulatory collision risk are all part of the M&A diligence framework, not post-signing work.

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