UNEP projects 2.8°C warming under current policies

On October 21, Reuters reported that a new UN Environment Programme assessment projects 2.8°C of warming by 2100 under current policies and 2.6°C if existing national pledges are fully implemented. UNEP said emissions would need to fall 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 for its lowest-overshoot pathway, while current national plans deliver much smaller reductions. For legal teams, those gaps are relevant to the reasonableness of transition assumptions used in disclosures, asset valuations, insurance decisions and long-term contracts. Boards should ask whether scenario analysis and risk factors still reflect a pathway that the latest policy trajectory no longer supports.